Changing El Niño-Southern Oscillation in a warming climate

腾信会议ID:715 482 960

会议时间:2021年11月 10:30-11:00 (北京时间)

报告人: Dr Wenju Cai

邀请人: 孙德征教授


Sea surface temperature (SST) variability of El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) underpins their global impact, and their future change is a long-standing science issue. In its sixth assessment, the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change reports no systematic change in ENSO and IOD SST under any emission scenarios considered. However, comparison in a century-long period between the 20th and 21st century shows a robust increase in ENSO and extreme-IOD SST variability in some plausible scenarios. In this presentation, I will review recent progress in the assessment of tropical variability under greenhouse warming.

About the Speaker

Dr Wenju Cai, a Chief Research Scientist, an Office of Chief Executive Science Leader at CSIRO, and Director of Southern Hemisphere Oceans Research, specializes in research into global climate variability and change. With over 25 years of research and leadership experience, his interest spans from dynamics of modes of climate variability (such as El Niño-Southern Oscillation and the Indian Ocean Dipole) and their mechanisms, to climate change detection and attribution, through to impacts of individual forcing factors of increasing carbon dioxide, increasing anthropogenic aerosols, and stratospheric ozone depletion. His sustained science achievement has had major influence on research directions of a large body of work. His service to science communities includes a contributing authorship to IPCC reports, co-Chair of World Climate Research Program CLIVAR Pacific Panel during 2009 – 2015, a member of the CLIVAR Scientific Steering Group (2016-2018) and its co-Chair (2019-ongoing). He specializes in conceptual nonlinear frameworks for extreme El Niño and extreme La Niña, and the IOD, uncovering nonlinearity in the dynamics and impact. These have resulted in the projection of increased frequency of these extremes under greenhouse warming. Cai has elucidated the dynamics of major modes of Southern Hemisphere ocean-atmosphere variability and change, including the role of Antarctic ozone depletion, increasing CO2 and the associated ocean circulation changes. In 2020, Cai was elected as Fellow of the Australian Academy Science.