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HIEC News
Saturday, September 27, 2025
A Diabatic and Nonlinear Theory for The Frequency of El Niño
The article Factors Determining the Frequency of El Niño" by Zhuoxin Gu and De-Zheng Sun (10.1175/JCLI-D-25-0032.1) has been published in Journal of Climate, vol. 38, no. 20. Pages: 5923-5939.
This study investigates factors controlling the frequency of El Niņo by employing a nonlinear box model capable of simulating a broad range of observed ENSO properties, including the asymmetry
between its two phases. A key finding from this study is that El Niņo frequency depends as much on the intensity of radiative heating as on the meomory of the upper ocean.
A fundamental mechanism by which the intensity of radiative heating affects the frequency of El Niņo is its effect on the generation of increasingly complex limit cycles,
which in turn alters oscillation patterns. These findings highlight fundamental limitations of linear approaches to address the problem of El Niņo frequency.
They also provide insight into how a change in the intensity of radiative heating, such as that induced by a change in the greenhouse effect, may alter the frequency of El Niņo.
The study is part of Miss Gu's graduate work, conducted under the guidance of Prof. Sun.
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